Montreal Home Sales Are Down 12% — But This Isn’t a Price Crash

What September’s QPAREB/Centris numbers actually show about the Montreal market, and why it’s good news for buyers

What September’s numbers say — and what they don’t

Residential sales in the greater Montreal area fell 12% in September 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to data from the QPAREB (Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers) via Centris. It’s a headline number, and it understandably worries plenty of buyers and homeowners.

But a drop in sales is not a drop in prices. These are two different statistics, and confusing them leads to poor decisions — whether that’s panic-buying too fast, or waiting for a crash that isn’t actually happening.

Here is what the data actually shows, and what it concretely changes if you’re considering buying in Montreal.

Sales Down ≠ Prices Down

The 12% decline measures the NUMBER of transactions completed, not their value. While fewer properties are changing hands, the ones that do sell keep selling for more than a year ago. According to QPAREB/Centris August data, the median price of a single-family home in the greater Montreal area rose 3% to $650,000. Condos rose 4% to $437,250. Plexes rose 2% to $856,000.

In plain terms: fewer buyers are showing up, but sellers who do close a deal are still getting more than before. That isn’t the profile of a market that’s collapsing — it’s the profile of a market that’s slowing down in volume while holding its value.

What This Actually Changes for a Buyer

The real shift isn’t in prices — it’s in choice and negotiating leverage. Two indicators make this clear:

For a buyer, this is a real window: more choice, less pressure to decide within 24 hours, and more room to do things properly — starting with a solid pre-approval before you even start viewing, so you know exactly what you can offer and negotiate from a position of strength.

Should You Wait for a Price Crash? No

This is the question many buyers ask when they see the “sales down 12%” headline: should I keep waiting, hoping prices eventually give in? The current data doesn’t support that scenario. Median prices kept climbing while sales slowed down — a market heading for a downward correction would show the opposite pattern.

What we’re seeing looks much more like a return to a more balanced market after several years where buyers were at a disadvantage: fewer bidding wars, more inventory, more time to think things through. This isn’t a buyer’s market in the sense of falling prices — it’s a market where buyers are regaining some negotiating power and choice, while property values hold steady.

Waiting for a crash that isn’t in the data risks missing the window where the balance of power is actually starting to shift back in the buyer’s favour.

Anthony King’s Recommendation

After analyzing September’s data for the greater Montreal area, here are my findings:

1. The 12% drop in sales should not be read as a signal to wait — median prices are still rising across every segment (single-family, condo, plex).
2. The sharp rise in inventory on both the South Shore (+28%) and North Shore (+26%) is the real opportunity: more choice, fewer bidding wars, more time to shop properly.
3. In a rebalancing market, pre-approval becomes your best negotiating tool: it lets you act quickly when the right property appears, without the pressure of a multiple-offer situation.

Anthony King, AMF-certified mortgage broker #254937